AI Ecosystem Intelligence Explorer

Inspired by recent work demonstrating the promise of smaller Transformer-based language models pretrained on carefully curated data, we supercharge such approaches by investing heavily in curating a novel, high quality, non-synthetic data mixture based solely on evaluation benchmarks. Using our novel dataset mixture consisting of less than 100 thousand tokens, we pretrain a 1 million parameter transformer-based LLM \textbf{phi-CTNL} (pronounced ``fictional”) that achieves perfect results across diverse academic benchmarks, strictly outperforming all known foundation models. \textbf{phi-CTNL} also beats power-law scaling and exhibits a never-before-seen grokking-like ability to accurately predict downstream evaluation benchmarks’ canaries.

Chain-of-thought AI “degrades significantly” when asked to generalize beyond training.

New research could have big implications for copyright lawsuits against generative AI.

We propose a new method for estimating how much a model knows about a datapoint and use it to measure the capacity of modern language models. Prior studies of language model memorization have struggled to disentangle memorization from generalization. We formally separate memorization into two components: unintended memorization, the information a model contains about a specific dataset, and generalization, the information a model contains about the true data-generation process. When we completely eliminate generalization, we can compute the total memorization, which provides an estimate of model capacity: our measurements estimate that GPT-style models have a capacity of approximately 3.6 bits per parameter. We train language models on datasets of increasing size and observe that models memorize until their capacity fills, at which point “grokking” begins, and unintended memorization decreases as models begin to generalize. We train hundreds of transformer language models ranging from $500K$ to $1.5B$ parameters and produce a series of scaling laws relating model capacity and data size to membership inference.

Reasoning LLMs Are Just Efficient Samplers: RL Training Elicits No Transcending Capacity

The main product LLM companies offer these days is access to their models via an API, and the key question that will determine the profitability they can enjoy is the inference cost structure.